[Goofus Maximus]

This was lifted pretty much wholesale off Chaos Manor Mail:

Why Anglos lead -- or do they?

THE PUBLIC INTEREST

Issue Date: Winter 2005/06, Posted On: 12/22/2005

Why Anglos Lead

By Lawrence Mead

OVER THE last few years, due to the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, many commentators have discerned the emergence of a new American empire. Some critics blame the Bush Administration, arguing that, but for Bush, there would be no crisis over American "unilateralism" or "hegemony." Others blame the end of the Cold War for "unleashing" America on the world.

Actually, American pre-eminence extends much further back--to World War II or before. It really continues a British primacy that dated back at least to 1815. During the 20th century, Germany, Japan and Soviet Russia challenged the Anglo ascendancy, but they were turned back. So today the world order bears a remarkable resemblance to the late Victorian era. Now as then, the world is globalizing, and English is its lingua franca. The United States has merely supplanted Britain as the leading power.

American primacy is not an accident of this or that administration. It reflects the special capacity of English-speaking countries to lead the world order. These "Anglo nations", or the "Anglos" as I will call them, include Britain and the chief territories that were settled initially from Britain--pre-eminently the United States but also Australia, Canada and New Zealand. What makes a country Anglo is that its original settler population came mainly from Britain. So even though a minority of Americans today have British roots, they inherit a political culture initially formed by the British. Some other countries that Britain ruled, such as India or South Africa, are not Anglo in this sense because British settlers never formed the bulk of their populations. They may be English-speaking, and their public institutions have British roots, but British culture did not form the society as it did in the Anglo countries. <snip>

==

While much of the history below is valuable, the presumption that the status quo will persist is absurd. China will be the dominant economic power of the world in just a few years. India may become a major power roughly 20 years from now. By that time, China's GDP will exceed the entire Anglo world by far. Over the same time, America's global influence will inexorably decline both in relative and absolute terms.

The calculation is trivial. If China attains a per-capita GDP of 50% of the U.S., then China's GDP will be 117% greater than ours. No successful developing Asian nation has failed to attain a per-capita at least this high. For example, Japan's per-capita GDP is 73% of the U.S., Hong Kong 88%, Singapore 71%, Taiwan 64%, South Korea 49%, Malaysia 25%, and Thailand 20%. Of course, Malaysia and Thailand took off well after the other Asian tigers. Notably China is already 15% of per-capita U.S. GDP. This is probably a pre-revision number (China just increased its estimated GDP 20% via better measurement of its service sector).

As you can see, one more doubly of GDP will make China's economy much larger than the U.S. A second doubling will make China vastly larger. At a 10% growth rate each doubling will take roughly 7 years.

Many people have trouble grasping just how large China's economy already is. A useful statistic is that China produces 1.2 billion tons of cement per year. The U.S. makes around 1/11th as much (91 million tons). China also dwarfs U.S. production of steel (3.5X), coal (1.75X), aluminum, etc. China is also a much larger consumer of copper, nickel, cobalt, etc. See http://www.flickr.com/photos/peter_s...in/set-797819/ for a useful chart. Ironically, the GDP column is wrong. China is roughly 13.6% of global output. See the September 2005 IMF WEO database for the details.

In a few areas China lags behind the U.S. China's power industry is only around 2/3 the size of its U.S. counterpart. However, based on current construction plans, China's power sector will pass the U.S. around 2010. The U.S. builds more cars than China, while lagging in virtually every other consumer good. See http://www.hsbc.com.cn/cn/common/dow...tus/200601.pdf for some details. Notably, China's exports will surpass the U.S. in around 18-24 months. See http://www.flickr.com/photos/peter_s...in/set-797819/ Within 5 years China will be the world's leading trading nation.

Will the rise of China is certainly impressive, the absolute decline of the U.S. is compounding its relative decline. The U.S. has gone from being the world's largest creditor to the largest debtor in a remarkably short period of time. See http://www.flickr.com/photos/peter_s...in/set-797819/ . History demonstrates that global power gravitates towards creditors, not debtors. This profound shift reflects America's astounding trade deficit. Stated simply, America isn't producing goods and services the world is willing to buy. Instead we are printing debt. For now, this works reasonably well. Of course, the same can be said for anyone living off home equity loans.

Ultimately power accrues to those nations that can produce goods and services the world is willing to buy. In the 19th century Britain dominated world production of manufactured goods (50% of the world at mid-century). In the 20th century the U.S. reached a similar apogee (also 50% of the world at mid-century). The decline of our nation as a productive power and the rise of China demonstrates just how quickly global influence is moving away from the U.S. and the Anglo world.

Thank you

Peter

P.S. The authors state "In the Third World, in contrast, lack of the rule of law is a worse hindrance to development than any economic problem". Somehow this hasn't impeded China.

[ivanolo]

Don't want to sound like a dick, but what's your point?

[Goofus Maximus]

It's an interesting read, with support for my fiscal conservative/anarchist bent...

[mistawiskas]

I'm not getting into panic mode yet. I'm already living the life that many rich people will have to learn to live. The median income for this city is only 29,000. The middle of the rang home costs 400,000. Tell me who's going to suffer when the shit hits the economic fan. I know I can survive....do they? This area has one of the lowest median incomes in the state but the highest amount of millionairs too. It already costs too much for most to buy homes.....I build them but will never be able to afford one myself.
Sounds like the country at large will have to get used to a similar fate....the rich get richer and the poor get poorer. I can survive a horrible economy by doing home repairs/light work- under the table and live faily decently can they?

[hans5849]

wow, thats everything i ever wanted to say but never put the effort into.

The simple fact is that our government still acts like its the cold war and we are the worlds leading superpower with no one to compete against us. And the National Debt is what will kill us, screw New Orleans the rest of the country will be much worse if we don't get our spending under controll.

[Eavanr]

Interesting read but not entirely accurate or even ground breaking. The accuring of such a diverse group of people into one political/economic/societal unit of *anglo* is a major mistake. The growth of China does not mean the United States will be poor, just less rich. Also the GDP/GNP economic indicators are subject to critical review as not being accurate representations of a country's economic strength. Lastly, what the hell is that last bit:

. The authors state "In the Third World, in contrast, lack of the rule of law is a worse hindrance to development than any economic problem". Somehow this hasn't impeded China.

[Goofus Maximus]

The "power from economic might" thing is important though. Look at how the European governments are falling over themselves to appease the rioters in the Middle East, which has a product we want, and which they can sell most cheaply to us. Currently, we as individuals and as a Nation are spending money we don't have, to fuel a lifestyle we can't really afford anymore.

[ivanolo]

I could spend the whole day criticizing the US, but that would only attract flames from fanatics who are blinded by their patriotism, who can't cope with the fact that their beloved country is going down the shitter....
I do wish that whoever comes after Dubya can reform the economy. Just like a free country needs laws, a free market needs regulations.
That's all for me.

[mistawiskas]

^^^Well said^^^